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A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."